Bulletin of Forestry Science / Volume 14 / Issue 1 / Pages 3-4
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Predicting carbon balance in the hungarian forestry and wood industry sector via the forest industry carbon model

Attila Borovics, Éva Király & Péter Kottek

Correspondence

Correspondence: Király Éva

Postal address: 9600 Sárvár, Várkerület 30/A.

e-mail: kiraly.eva.ilona[at]uni-sopron.hu

Abstract

As forest-based climate change mitigation gains greater importance within international climate policy, understanding the mechanisms influencing the carbon offsetting capacity of the sector becomes increasingly important. Our study evaluates the climate benefits of contrasting forest management strategies: one focuses on reducing harvest and expanding forest carbon stocks, while the other aims to increase harvest to enhance carbon uptake, wood product carbon pools, and substitution effects. We analyse the carbon balance of the Hungarian forest industry under three scenarios: the business as usual (BAU) scenario with no changes in current harvest and afforestation levels, the extensification scenario with reduced harvest and afforestation levels, and the intensification scenario involving increased afforestation, improved wood assortments, and gradually increasing timber extraction which is still meeting sustainability criteria. We introduce the Forest Industry Carbon Model (FICM), a novel carbon accounting tool encompassing various carbon pools including forest biomass, dead organic matter, soil, harvested wood products, and emissions avoided through product and energy substitution. Our findings indicate that the intensification scenario performs the highest net removals and optimized product and energy substitution effects. By 2050, the net carbon balance of the forest industry will reach –8,447 kt CO2 eq in the BAU scenario, –7,011 kt CO2 eq in the extensification scenario and –22,135 kt CO2 eq in the intensification scenario. Although substitution effects are not accounted for under the land-use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector in Greenhouse Gas Inventories, emission reductions in the industry and energy sectors positively influence the national carbon balance. Our projections reveal that Hungary can meet the 2030 LULUCF greenhouse gas removal target set by EU legislation under the intensification scenario, necessitating significant innovation within the wood sector. In comparison, forest non-utilization proves to be a short-term solution, with its favourable effects diminishing by 2050 and leading to additional emissions as compared to the BAU scenario.
This article is based on the original publication by Borovics et al. 2024 (Projection of the Carbon Balance of the Hungarian Forestry and Wood Industry Sector Using the Forest Industry Carbon Model).

Keywords: CO2, HWP, forest management scenarios, climate change mitigation, product substitution, energy substitution

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    Borovics, A., Király, É. & Kottek, P. (2024): Predicting carbon balance in the hungarian forestry and wood industry sector via the forest industry carbon model. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 14(1): 3-4. (in Hungarian) DOI: 10.17164/EK.2024.02

    Volume 14, Issue 1
    Pages: 3-4

    DOI: 10.17164/EK.2024.02

    First published:
    16 September 2024

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