Climate change can be detected in the national forestry database
Péter Kottek & Éva Király
Correspondence: Kottek Péter
Postal address: H-1023 Budapest, Frankel Leó u. 42-44.
From 2006 to 2016 a noticeable change can be observed in the climatic classification of forest stands in the Na-tional Forestry Database (NFD). As the polygons of forest stands cannot be fully matched between the 2006 and 2016 state of the NFD, climate transitions were studied along a one hectare resolution sample grid. This sampling pattern allowed large scale comparison of climatic categories and the description of local changes occurred be-tween the two periods (2006 state of NFD consists of field surveys between 1996 and 2005; 2016 state between 2005-2015 accordingly). The sample grid also facilitated the statistical evaluation.
The results show that climate classification has changed in 5.4 percent of the forest area, and the distribution of climate categories in 2016 shows a statistically significant difference compared to the 2006 state. Accordingly, the concept of climate change is strongly supported by data of the official forest inventory. The speed of climate shifts may be considered fast and the direction is warning as changes are generally unfavourable.
We also analysed the sampling grid nodes where the forest land use changed to another land use type between 2006 and 2016. We found that 44 percent of these sampling points were in the “forest steppe” climate category (the most arid one of the 4 possible classes). This shows that in forest stands under this climate category land use change is more likely to be undertaken.
On the other hand the major part of newly afforested area is under “forest steppe” (37%) and “sessile oak – Turkey oak” (34%) climate which shows that new forests are planted under dry conditions.
Keywords: climate change, climate classification in forestry, National Forestry Database, large scale grid sampling
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Cite this article as:
Kottek, P. & Király, É. (2019): Climate change can be detected in the national forestry database. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 9(1): 7-18. (in Hungarian) DOI: 10.17164/EK.2019.001
Volume 9, Issue 1
25 June 2019
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