Present and forecasted distribution of beech and sessile oak at the xeric climatic limits in Central Europe

Czúcz Bálint; Gálhidy László; Mátyás Csaba

Bulletin of Forestry Science / Volume 3 / Issue 1 / Pages 39-53
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Bálint Czúcz, László Gálhidy & Csaba Mátyás

Correspondence

Correspondence: Mátyás Csaba

Postal address: H-9400 Sopron, Bajcsy-Zsilinszky u. 4.

e-mail: cm[at]emk.nyme.hu

Abstract

In order to project the effects of expected climatic changes, distribution of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea) were analysed at the xeric limits in Hungary. A fine-scale analysis was combined with sophisticated screening for climate-dependent (zonal) occurrences. For both species, temperature and precipitation conditions in late spring and summer appear as principal variables determining the probability of presence. For beech, the importance of Ellenberg’s climate quotient supports its sensitivity to summer drought. The calculated range shifts are drastic, similar to other results of statistic models. The applied approach allows a finer distinction of climatic threats on local scale and draws the attention to the urgency of preparative measures and application of proper silvicultural technologies.

Keywords: xeric limit, retracting limit, drought tolerance, climate change, climate niche modeling

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Beaumont, L.J.; Pitman, A.J.; Poulsen M. and Hughes, L. 2007: Where will species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions. Global Change Biology, 13: 1368–1385. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01357.x

Benito Garzón, M.; Alía R.; Robson T. M.; and Zavala, M. A. 2011: Intra-specific variability and plasticity influence potential tree species distributions under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20: 766–778. DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00646.x

Berki, I.; Rasztovits, E.; Móricz, N. and Mátyás, Cs. 2009: Determination of the drought tolerance limit of beech forests and forecasting their future distribution in Hungary. Cereal Research Communications, 37: 613–616.

Berry, P. M.; Dawson, T. P.; Harrison, P. A. and Pearson, R. G. 2002: Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11: 453–462. DOI: 10.1046/j.1466-822x.2002.00304.x

Benito Garzón, M.; Sánchez de Dios, R. and Sainz Ollero, H. 2008: Effects of climate change on the distribution of Iberian tree species. Applied Vegetation Science, 11: 169–178. DOI: 10.3170/2008-7-18348

Bolliger, J.; Kienast, F. and Zimmermann, N. E. 2000: Risks of global warming on montane and subalpine forests in Switzerland – a modeling study. Regional Environmental Change, 1: 99–111. DOI: 10.1007/s101130000018

Bolte, A.; Czajkowski, T. and Kompa, T. 2007: The north-eastern distribution range of European beech – a review. Forestry, 80(4): 413–429. DOI: 10.1093/forestry/cpm028

Breiman, L.; Friedman, J.; Ohlsen, R. and Stone C. 1984: Classification and regression trees, Chapman Hall/CRC Press, New York.

Christensen, J.H.; Hewitson, B.; Busuioc, A.; Chen, A.; Gao, X.; Held, I.; Jones, R.; Kolli, R.K.; Kwon, W–T.; Laprise, R.; Magaña Rueda, V.; Mearns, L.; Menéndez, C.G.; Räisänen, J.; Rinke, A.; Sarr, A. and Whetton, P. 2007: Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M., et al. (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 747–845.

Czajkowski, T.; Kuhling, M. and Bolte, A. 2005: Einfluss der Sommertrockenheit im Jahre 2003 auf das Wachstum von Naturverjüngungen der Buche (Fagus sylvatica L.) im nordöstlichen Mitteleuropa. Allgemeine Forst- und Jagdzeitung, 176: 133–143.

Czúcz, B.; Gálhidy, L. and Mátyás, Cs. 2011: Present and forecasted xeric climatic limits of beech and sessile oak distribution at low altitudes in Central Europe. Annals of Forest Science, 68(1): 99–108. DOI: 10.1007/s13595-011-0011-4

Csóka Gy.; Koltay A.; Hirka A. és Janik G. 2007: Az aszályosság hatása kocsánytalan tölgyeseink és bükköseink egészségi állapotára. In: Mátyás Cs. és Vig P. (szerk.): Erdő és klíma V. kötet, Sopron, 229–239.

Csóka Gy.; Koltay A.; Hirka A. és Janik G. 2009: Az aszályosság hatása kocsánytalan tölgyeseink és bükköseink egészségi állapotára. KlÍMA-21 füzetek, 57: 64–73.

Di Filippo, A.; Biondi, F.; Cufar, K. et al. 2007: Bioclimatology of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the Eastern Alps: spatial and altitudinal climatic signals identified through a tree-ring network. Journal of Biogeography, 34: 1873–1892. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2007.01747.x

Dittmar, C.; Zech, W. and Elling, W. 2003: Growth variations of common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under different climatic and environmental conditions in Europe – a dendroecological study. Forest Ecology and Management, 173: 63–78. DOI: 10.1016/s0378-1127(01)00816-7

Dormann, C. F. 2007: Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic and Applied Ecology, 8: 387–397. DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2006.11.001

Ellenberg, H. 1988: Vegetation ecology of Central Europe, 4th ed. Cambridge University Press.

Fang, J. and Lechovicz, M.J. 2006: Climatic limits for the present distribution of beech (Fagus L.) species in the world. Journal of Biogeography, 33: 1804–1819. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01533.x

Fielding, A.H. and Bell, J.F. 1997: A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24: 38–49. DOI: 10.1017/s0376892997000088

Fischlin, A.; Midgley, G.F.; Price, J.T.; Leemans, R.; Gopal, B.; Turley, C.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Dube, O.P.; Tarazona, J. and Velichko, A.A. 2007: Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P. et al. (Eds.): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 211–272.

Führer, E. und Járó, Z. 1992: Auswirkungen der Klimaänderung auf die Waldbestände Ungarns, Allgemeine Forstzeitung, 9: 25–27.

Führer E. 2010: A fák növekedése és a klíma. „Klíma-21” füzetek, 61:98–107.

Führer, E.; Horváth, L.; Jagodics, A.; Machon, A. and Szabados, I. 2011: Application of a new aridity index in Hungarian forestry practice. Időjárás, 115 (3): 205–216.

Gea-Izquierdo, G.; Martín-Benito, D.; Cherubini, P. and Canellas, I. 2009: Climate – growth variability in Quercus ilex L west Iberian open woodlands of different stand density. Annales of Forest Science, 66: 802. DOI: 10.1051/forest/2009080

Goslee S.C., Dean L., The ecodist package for dissimilarity-based analysis of ecological data, J. Stat. Software 22: (2007) Nr. 7.

Hampe, A. and Petit, R.J. 2005: Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters. Ecology Letters, 8: 461–467. DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00739.x

Hothorn, T.; Hornik, K. and Zeileis, A. 2006a: Party: a laboratory for recursive partitioning. R package version 0.9–0.

Hothorn, T.; Hornik, K. and Zeileis, A. 2006b: Unbiased recursive partitioning: a conditional inference framework. Journal of Computer Graphraphics and Statistics, 15: 651–674. DOI: 10.1198/106186006x133933

Iverson, L.R. and Prasad, A. 2001: Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change. Ecosystems, 4: 186–199. DOI: 10.1007/s10021-001-0003-6

Járó Z. 1972: A termőhely fogalma. In: Danszky I. (szerk.) Erdőművelés I. Mezőgazdasági Kiadó, Budapest, 47–79.

Jiménez-Valverde, A. and Lobo, J.M. 2007: Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either – or presence – absence. Acta Oecologica, 31: 361–369. DOI: 10.1016/j.actao.2007.02.001

Jump, A.S.; Hunt, J.M. and Penuelas, J. 2006: Rapid climate change-related growth decline at the southern range edge of Fagus sylvatica. Global Change Biology, 12: 2163–2174. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01250.x

Jump, A.; Mátyás, Cs. and Penuelas, J. 2009: The paradox of altitude for latitude comparisons in species range retractions (review). Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 24(12): 694–700. DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.007

Kölling, C. 2007: Klimahüllen von 27 Waldbaumarten. AFZ – der Wald 23: 1242–1244.

Koskela, J.; Buck, A. and Teissier du Cros, E. (Eds.) 2007: Climate change and forest genetic diversity: Implications for sustainable forest management in Europe. Biodiversity International, Rome, Italy.

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Czúcz, B., Gálhidy, L. & Mátyás, Cs. (2013): Present and forecasted distribution of beech and sessile oak at the xeric climatic limits in Central Europe. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 3(1): 39-53. (in Hungarian)

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Volume 3, Issue 1
Pages: 39-53

First published:
28 June 2013

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