New climate scenarios – smaller drought risk for European beech?

Gálos Borbála; Somogyi Zoltán

Bulletin of Forestry Science / Volume 7 / Issue 2 / Pages 85-98
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Borbála Gálos & Zoltán Somogyi

Correspondence

Correspondence: Gálos Borbála

Postal address: H-9400 Sopron, Bajcsy-Zsilinszky E. u. 4.

e-mail: galos.borbala[at]uni-sopron.hu

Abstract

Impact assessments and development of adaptation measures in forestry require robust information on long-term climate tendencies. To analyse how climate change scenarios and the uncertainty of climate models might affect conclusions of forestry impact studies, results of regional climate model ensembles run on representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and emission scenario (A1B) of the IPCC were used by the end of the 21^st century from which temperature-precipitation indices (FAI, EQmod, TIb) were calculated that have been used to define suitable macroclimate and mortality thresholds for extreme droughts for European beech for Zala County (SW Hungary).
Our results demonstrate that, in contrast to the robust warming and drying tendency of summers for the A1B scenario, the sign of the changes of precipitation projected by the RCP scenarios is rather unclear, and the simulated precipitation changes have a rather wide range and uncertainty. Despite these, all climate models agree in a significant increase of temperature that leads to more and more arid climate conditions by the end of the century. As a consequence, the macroclimatically suitable areas for beech are expected to disappear from the investigated region even assuming the lowest radiative forcing. Independently from the applied scenario, climate model and drought index, it is likely that more frequent drought periods will occur that are hotter than the most extreme event observed in the last century, so that the drought risks in forestry can be larger than what has ever been observed so far. Our results confirm that despite their uncertainty, climate change projections can already be robust enough to detect potential impacts and to support the development of adaptation measures in forestry.

Keywords: climate change, climate projection, beech climate, meteorological drought, drought frequency

References44

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29.	Lakatos F. & Molnár M. 2009: Mass Mortality of Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in South-West Hungary. Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica 5: 75–82. full text
30.	Lakatos M., Szentimrey T., Bihari Z. & Szalai S. 2013: Creation of a homogenized climate database for the Carpathian region by applying the MASH procedure and the preliminary analysis of the data. Időjárás 117: 143–158.
31.	Lindner M., Maroschek M., Netherer S., Kremer A., Barbati A., Garcia-Gonzalo J. et al. 2010: Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. Forest Ecology and Management 259(4): 698–709. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.023
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35.	Molnár M., Brück-Dyckhoff C., Petercord R. & Lakatos F. 2010: A zöld karcsúdíszbogár (Agrilus viridis L.) szerepe a bükkösök pusztulásában. Növényvédelem 46(11): 522–528.
36.	Móricz N., Rasztovits E., Gálos B., Berki I., Eredics A. & Loibl W. 2013: Modeling the Potential Distribution of Three Climate Zonal Tree Species for Present and Future Climate in Hungary. Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica 9(1): 85–96. DOI: 10.2478/aslh-2013-0007
37.	Moss R.H., Edmonds J.A., Hibbard K.A., Manning M.R., Rose S.K., van Vuuren D.P. et al. 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747–756. DOI: 10.1038/nature08823
38.	Pfeifer S., Bülow K., Gobiet A., Hänsler A., Mudelsee M., Otto J. et al. 2015: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany. Atmosphere 6(5): 677–698. DOI: 10.3390/atmos6050677
39.	Pongrácz R., Bartholy J. & Kis A. 2014: Estimation of future precipitation conditions for Hungary with special focus on dry periods. Időjárás 118: 305–321.
40.	R Core Team 2012: R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL
41.	Rasztovits E., Berki I., Mátyás Cs., Czimber K., Pötzelsberger E. & Móricz N. 2014: The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit. Annals of Forest Science 71(2): 201–210. DOI: 10.1007/s13595-013-0346-0
42.	Somogyi Z. 2016: Projected effects of climate change on the carbon stocks of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in Zala County, Hungary. Lesnícky časopis - Forestry Journal 62: 3–14. DOI: 10.1515/forj-2016-0001
43.	Somogyi Z. 2017: Az elővigyázatosság elve és az éghajlatváltozás – Mire figyelmeztetnek az erdők? Magyar Tudomány 6: 252–657.
44.	Spinoni J., Naumann G., Vogt J. & Barbosa P. 2016: Meteorological Droughts in Europe: Events and Impacts – Past Trends and Future Projections. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, EUR 27748 EN. DOI: 10.2788/450449

Allen C.D., Breshears D.D. & McDowell. N.G. 2015: On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene. Ecosphere 6(8): 129. DOI: 10.1890/ES15-00203.1

Bartholy J. & Pongrácz R. 2017: A közelmúlt és a jövő országos éghajlati trendjei. Erdészeti Lapok 152(5): 134–136. full text

Berki I., Rasztovits E., Móricz N. & Mátyás Cs. 2009: Determination of the drought tolerance limit of beech forests and forecasting their future distribution in Hungary. Cereal Research Communications 37: 613–616.

Berki I., Rasztovits E. & Móricz N. 2014: Erdőállományok egészségi állapotának értékelése – egy új megközelítés. Erdészettudományi Közlemények 4(2): 149–155. full text

Bidló A., Gálos B. & Horváth A. 2017: Observed response of vulnerable forest ecosystems to ongoing site condition changes. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 19, EGU2017-5087.

Borhidi A. 1961: Klimadiagramme und klimazonale Karte Ungarns. Annales Universitatis Scientiarum Budapestinensis, Sectio Biologica 4: 21–50.

Cook B.I., Smerdon J.E., Seager R. & Coats S. 2014: Global warming and 21st century drying. Climate Dynamics 43(9-10): 2607–2627. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y

Csáki P., Kalicz P., Csóka G., Brolly G., Czimber, K. & Gribovszki Z. 2014: Különböző felszínborítások hidrológiai hatásai a klímaváltozás tükrében Zala megye példáján. Erdészettudományi Közlemények 4(2): 65–76. full text

Czimber K. & Gálos B. 2016: A new decision support system to analyse the impacts of climate change on the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research 37(1): 664–673. DOI: 10.1080/02827581.2016.1212088

Csóka, Gy. & Hirka A. 2011: Alien and invasive forest insects in Hungary (a review). Proceedings of the „Biotic Risks and Climate Change in Forests” 10th IUFRO Workshop of WP 7.03.10 “Methodology of Forest Insect and Disease Survey in Central Europe”, September 20-23, 2010, Freiburg, Germany. Berichte Freiburger Forstliche Forschung 89: 54–60.

Csóka Gy., Koltay A., Hirka A. & Janik G. 2009: Az aszályosság hatása kocsánytalan tölgyeseink és bükköseink egészségi állapotára. Klíma-21 füzetek 57: 64–73.

Diffenbaugh N.S., Swain D.L. & Touma D. 2015: Anthropogenic Warming Has Increased Drought Risk in California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(13): 3931–3936. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422385112

Franke J. & Köstner B. 2007: Effects of recent climate trends on the distribution of potential natural vegetation in Central Germany. International Journal of Biometeorology 52(2): 139–147. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-007-0096-5

Führer E. 2010: A fák növekedése és a klíma. “Klíma-21” Füzetek 61: 98–107.

Führer E., Horváth L., Jagodics A., Machon A. & Szabados I. 2011: Application of a new aridity index in Hungarian forestry practice. Időjárás 115: 205–216.

Führer E. 2017: Az erdészeti klímaosztályok új lehatárolása öko-fiziológiai alapon. (A klímaváltozáshoz alkalmazkodó erdőgazdálkodás kihívásai – III.). Erdészeti Lapok 6: 173–175. full text

Gálos B., Lorenz P. & Jacob D. 2007: Will dry events occur more often in Hungary in the future? Environmental Research Letters 2(3): 034006. (9 pp.) DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/3/034006

Gálos B., Führer E., Czimber K., Gulyás K., Bidló A., Hänsler A. et al. 2015: Climatic threats determining future adaptive forest management – a case study of Zala County. Időjárás 119(4): 425–441.

Hlásny T., Mátyás Cs., Seidl R., Kulla L., Mergaicová K., Trombik J. et al. 2014: Climate change increases the drought risk in Central European forests: What are the options for adaptation? Lesnícky časopis – Forestry Journal 60(1): 5–18. DOI: 10.2478/forj-2014-0001

Illés G. & Fonyó T. 2016: A klímaváltozás fatermésre gyakorolt várható hatásának becslése az AGRATéR projektben. Erdészettudományi Közlemények 6(1): 25–34. DOI: 10.17164/EK.2016.003

IPCC 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., Qin D., Plattner G.-K., Tignor M., Allen S.K. & Boschung J. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Jacob D., et 38 coauthors EURO–CORDEX, 2013: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environmental Change 14(2): 563–578. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

Janik G., Hirka A., Koltay A., Juhász J. & Csóka Gy. 2016: 50 év biotikus kárai a magyar bükkösökben. Erdészettudományi Közlemények 6(1): 45–60. DOI: 10.17164/EK.2016.005

Janik G. 2017: A magyarországi bükkösök hosszú távú egészségi állapot trendjei. Ph.D. dolgozat (bírálat alatt)

Járó Z. 1966: A termőhely. In: Babos, I., Szodfridt, I., Tóth, B., Proszt, H. S., Járó, Z., Király, L. Erdészeti termőhelyfeltárás és térképezés. Budapest. 19–116.

Jones C.F.G. & Asrar G. 2011: The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment: CORDEX, An international downscaling link to CMIP5. CLIVAR Exchanges (special issue) 56: 34–40.

Jung T. 2009: Beech decline in Central Europe driven by the interaction between Phytophthora infections and climatic extremes. Forest Pathology 39(2): 73–94. DOI: 10.1111/j.1439-0329.2008.00566.x

Kotlarski S., Keuler K., Christensen O.B., Colette A., Déqué M., Gobiet A. et al. 2014: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development 7(4): 1297–1333. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014

Lakatos F. & Molnár M. 2009: Mass Mortality of Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in South-West Hungary. Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica 5: 75–82. full text

Lakatos M., Szentimrey T., Bihari Z. & Szalai S. 2013: Creation of a homogenized climate database for the Carpathian region by applying the MASH procedure and the preliminary analysis of the data. Időjárás 117: 143–158.

Lindner M., Maroschek M., Netherer S., Kremer A., Barbati A., Garcia-Gonzalo J. et al. 2010: Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. Forest Ecology and Management 259(4): 698–709. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.023

Mastrandrea M.D., Field C.B., Stocker T.F., Edenhofer O., Ebi K.L., Frame D.J. et al. 2010: Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Intergov-ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Mátyás Cs. & Czimber K. 2000: Zonális erdőtakaró mezoklíma szintű modellezése: lehetőségek a klímaváltozás hatásainak előrejelzésére. III. Erdő és Klima Konferencia Debrecen, DE TTK Meteorológia Tanszék, 83–97.

Mátyás Cs., Führer E., Berki I., Csóka Gy., Drüszler Á., Lakatos F. et al. 2010. Erdők a szárazsági határon. “Klíma-21” Füzetek 61: 84–97.

Molnár M., Brück-Dyckhoff C., Petercord R. & Lakatos F. 2010: A zöld karcsúdíszbogár (Agrilus viridis L.) szerepe a bükkösök pusztulásában. Növényvédelem 46(11): 522–528.

Móricz N., Rasztovits E., Gálos B., Berki I., Eredics A. & Loibl W. 2013: Modeling the Potential Distribution of Three Climate Zonal Tree Species for Present and Future Climate in Hungary. Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica 9(1): 85–96. DOI: 10.2478/aslh-2013-0007

Moss R.H., Edmonds J.A., Hibbard K.A., Manning M.R., Rose S.K., van Vuuren D.P. et al. 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747–756. DOI: 10.1038/nature08823

Pfeifer S., Bülow K., Gobiet A., Hänsler A., Mudelsee M., Otto J. et al. 2015: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany. Atmosphere 6(5): 677–698. DOI: 10.3390/atmos6050677

Pongrácz R., Bartholy J. & Kis A. 2014: Estimation of future precipitation conditions for Hungary with special focus on dry periods. Időjárás 118: 305–321.

R Core Team 2012: R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL

Rasztovits E., Berki I., Mátyás Cs., Czimber K., Pötzelsberger E. & Móricz N. 2014: The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit. Annals of Forest Science 71(2): 201–210. DOI: 10.1007/s13595-013-0346-0

Somogyi Z. 2016: Projected effects of climate change on the carbon stocks of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in Zala County, Hungary. Lesnícky časopis - Forestry Journal 62: 3–14. DOI: 10.1515/forj-2016-0001

Somogyi Z. 2017: Az elővigyázatosság elve és az éghajlatváltozás – Mire figyelmeztetnek az erdők? Magyar Tudomány 6: 252–657.

Spinoni J., Naumann G., Vogt J. & Barbosa P. 2016: Meteorological Droughts in Europe: Events and Impacts – Past Trends and Future Projections. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, EUR 27748 EN. DOI: 10.2788/450449

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Gálos, B. & Somogyi, Z. (2017): New climate scenarios – smaller drought risk for European beech?. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 7(2): 85-98. (in Hungarian) DOI: 10.17164/EK.2017.006

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Volume 7, Issue 2
Pages: 85-98

DOI: 10.17164/EK.2017.006

First published:
21 November 2017

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16.	Führer, E., Marosi, Gy., Jagodics, A. & Juhász, I. (2011): A possible effect of climate change in forest management. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 1(1): 17-28.

Illés, G. & Móricz, N. (2022): Investigating the climate analogue area of domestic tree species in the light of climate change. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 12(2): 91-112.

Koltay, A., Fürjes-Mikó, Á., Tenorio-Baigorria, I., Eötvös, Cs. B. & Horváth, L. (2020): Health condition investigation of forests in KASZÓ-LIFE project. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 10(2): 97-108.

Visiné, R. E., Hofmann, T., Albert, L. & Mátyás, Cs. (2018): Antioxidant system as a potential indicator of the climatic adaptation of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(2): 25-35.

Polgár, A., Pécsinger, J., Horváth, A., Szakálosné, M. K., Horváth, A. L., Rumpf, J. & Kovács, Z. (2018): Carbon footprint and predicted climate risk of forest technologies. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 227-245.

Berki, I., Móricz, N., Rasztovits, E., Gulyás, K., Garamszegi, B., Horváth, A., Balázs, P. & Lakatos, B. (2018): Mortality and accelerating growth in sessile oak sites. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 119-130.

Gálos, B. & Führer, E. (2018): Climate projections for forestry in Hungary. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 43-55.

Hirka, A., Pödör, Z., Garamszegi, B. & Csóka, Gy. (2018): 50 years trends of the forest drought damage in Hungary (1962-2011). Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 11-25.

Janik, G., Hirka, A., Koltay, A., Juhász, J. & Csóka, Gy. (2016): 50 years biotic damage in the Hungarian beech forests. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 6(1): 45-60.

Illés, G. & Fonyó, T. (2016): Assessing the expected impact of climate change on forest yield potential in the AGRAGIS project. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 6(1): 25-34.

Mátyás, Cs. & Kramer, K. (2016): Adaptive management of forests and their genetic resources in the face of climate change. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 6(1): 7-16.

Berki, I., Rasztovits, E. & Móricz, N. (2014): Health condition assessment of forest stands – a new approach. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 4(2): 149-155.

Horváth, A. & Mátyás, Cs. (2014): Estimation of increment decline caused by climate change, based on data of a beech provenance trial. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 4(2): 91-99.

Illés, G., Kollár, T., Veperdi, G. & Führer, E. (2014): Forests’ yield and height growth dependence on site conditions in County Zala Hungary. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 4(2): 77-89.

Jankó, F. (2014): From regional to global climate change: Three chapters of science history from Hungary. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 4(2): 9-20.

Czúcz, B., Gálhidy, L. & Mátyás, Cs. (2013): Present and forecasted distribution of beech and sessile oak at the xeric climatic limits in Central Europe. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 3(1): 39-53.

Führer, E., Marosi, Gy., Jagodics, A. & Juhász, I. (2011): A possible effect of climate change in forest management. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 1(1): 17-28.

More articles by this authors in the Bulletin of Forestry Science

1.	Gálos, B., Mátyás, Cs. & Jacob, D. (2012): The role of afforestation in mitigating climate change. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 2(1): 35-45.
2.	Czimber, K., Mátyás, Cs., Bidló, A. & Gálos, B. (2018): Machine learning approximation of Járó-table (table of applicable targeted forest stands and their growth for each forest site). Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 93-103.
3.	Bidló, A., Szűcs, P., Horváth, A., Király, É., Németh, E. & Somogyi, Z. (2014): The effect of afforestations on the carbon stock of soil in Transdanubian Region (Hungary). Bulletin of Forestry Science, 4(2): 121-133.
4.	Somogyi, Z. (2018): Climate-change induced forest decline can further enhance climate change. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 211-226.

Gálos, B., Mátyás, Cs. & Jacob, D. (2012): The role of afforestation in mitigating climate change. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 2(1): 35-45.

Czimber, K., Mátyás, Cs., Bidló, A. & Gálos, B. (2018): Machine learning approximation of Járó-table (table of applicable targeted forest stands and their growth for each forest site). Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 93-103.

Bidló, A., Szűcs, P., Horváth, A., Király, É., Németh, E. & Somogyi, Z. (2014): The effect of afforestations on the carbon stock of soil in Transdanubian Region (Hungary). Bulletin of Forestry Science, 4(2): 121-133.

Somogyi, Z. (2018): Climate-change induced forest decline can further enhance climate change. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 211-226.

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