Assessing the expected impact of climate change on forest yield potential in the AGRAGIS project

Illés Gábor; Fonyó Tamás

Bulletin of Forestry Science / Volume 6 / Issue 1 / Pages 25-34
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Gábor Illés & Tamás Fonyó

Correspondence

Correspondence: Illés Gábor

Postal address: H-9600 Sárvár, Várkerület 30/a.

e-mail: illesg[at]erti.hu

Abstract

Climate change requires actions from political, social, economic, and scientific stakeholders. The AGRAGIS project during the development of National Adaptation Geo-information System aimed to assess the climate change induced potential impacts on yield conditions of forests. During the project on the basis of the historical meteorological database of the country (CarpatClim-Hu), and using the ALADIN and RegCM regional climate models we have assessed the expected forest climate zone shifts in Hungary. Yield data of forests as a baseline came from forest stands that were established in the early 1960s, which are being now the 6th age-class. Yield data for forests under changed conditions came from forest stands that were established in the early 1990s, which are being now the 3rd age-class. Climate change facts between the periods of 1961-1990 and 1991-2010 can be statistically evaluated in this way together with yield changes of forest stands. By the projection of average statistical differences according to site we can assess the expected changes in yield potential for future time windows of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Results showed that a drop is expected for all major species’ yield potential to different extent under future climate conditions.

Keywords: climate change, yield change, climate change impact assessment

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Anderegg, W. R. L.; Hicke, J. A.; Fisher, R. A.; Allen, C. D.; Aukema, J.; Bentz, B.; and Zeppel, M. 2015: Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate. New Phytologist. 208 (3): 674-683. DOI: 10.1111/nph.13477

Bartholy, J. and Pongrácz, R. 2010a: Analysis of precipitation conditions for the Carpathian Basin based on extreme indices in the 20th century and climate simulations for 2050 and 2100. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 35 (1-2): 43-51. DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2010.03.011

Bartholy J.; Pongrácz R. and Torma C. 2010b: A Kárpát-medencében 2021-2050-re várható regionális éghajlatváltozás RegCM-szimulációk alapján. "Klíma-21" Füzetek, 60, 3-13.

Easterling, W.; Aggarwal, P.; Batima, P.; Brander, K.; Erda, L.; Howden, M.; Kirilenko, A.; Morton, J.; Soussana, J.-F.; Schmidhuber, J. and Tubiello, F. 2007: Food, fibre and forest products. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 273-313. URL

Führer, E.; Horváth, L.; Jagodics, A.; Machon, A. and Szabados, I. 2011: Application of a new aridity index in Hungarian forestry practice. Időjárás, 115 (3): 205-216.

Gencsi L. és Vancsura R. 1997: Dendrológia (2. ed.). Mezőgazda Kiadó.

Hlasny, T.; Barcza, Z.; Fabrika, M.; Balazs, B.; Churkina, G.; Pajtik, J. and Turcani, M. 2011: Climate change impacts on growth and carbon balance of forests in Central Europe. Climate Research, 47 (3): 219-236. DOI: 10.3354/cr01024

Hlásny, T.; Mátyás, Cs.; Seidl, R.; Kulla, L.; Merganičová, K.; Trombik, J. and Konôpka, B. 2014: Climate change increases the drought risk in Central European forests: What are the options for adaptation? Forestry Journal, 60 (1): 5-18. DOI: 10.2478/forj-2014-0001

Horányi, A.; Mile, M.; and Szűcs, M. 2011: Latest developments around the ALADIN operational short-range ensemble prediction system in Hungary. Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63 (3): 642-651. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00518.x

IPCC. 2007: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). IPCC, 1, 976. ISSN: 02767783

Luo, Y. and Chen, H. Y. H. 2015: Climate change-associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability. Ecology Letters 18 (11): 1207-1215. DOI: 10.1111/ele.12500

Mátyás, Cs. 2006: Migratory, genetic and phenetic response potential of forest tree populations facing climate change. Acta Silvatica & Lignaria Hungarica, 2, 33-46. full text

Mátyás, Cs.; Berki, I.; Czúcz, B.; Gálos, B.; Móricz, N. and Rasztovits, E. 2010: Future of beech in Southeast Europe from the perspective of evolutionary ecology. Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica, 6, 91-110. full text

Mátyás, Cs. and Sun, G. 2014: Forests in a water limited world under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (8): 085001. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085001

Settele, J.; Scholes, R. J.; Betts, R.; Bunn, S.; Leadley, P.; Nepstad, D. and Toboada, M. S. 2014: Chapter 4. Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 271-359. 31 March 2014

Somogyi, Z. 2008: Recent trends of tree growth in relation to climate change in Hungary. Acta Silvatica Lignaria Hungarica, 4, 17-27. full text

Spiecker, H. 1999: Overview of recent growth trends in European forests. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 116 (1-2): 33-46. DOI: 10.1023/a:1005205515952

Spinoni, J.; Lakatos, M.; Szentimrey, T.; Bihari, Z.; Szalai, S.; Vogt, J. and Antofie, T. 2015a: Heat and cold waves trends in the Carpathian Region from 1961 to 2010. International Journal of Climatology, 35 (14): 4197-4209. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4279

Spinoni, J.; Szalai, S.; Szentimrey, T.; Lakatos, M.; Bihari, Z.; Nagy, A. and Vogt, J. 2015b: Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961-2010: Climatologies and trends of 10 variables. International Journal of Climatology, 35 (7): 1322-1341. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4059

Szépszó, G.; Lingemann, I.; Klein, B. and Kovács, M. 2014: Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions of Rhine and Upper Danube rivers based on the results of regional climate and hydrological models. Natural Hazards, 72 (1): 241-262. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0987-1

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Illés, G. & Fonyó, T. (2016): Assessing the expected impact of climate change on forest yield potential in the AGRAGIS project. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 6(1): 25-34. (in Hungarian) DOI: 10.17164/EK.2016.003

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Volume 6, Issue 1
Pages: 25-34

DOI: 10.17164/EK.2016.003

First published:
27 September 2016

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