Bulletin of Forestry Science / Volume 14 / Issue 1 / Pages 7-8
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Assessing afforestation potential on the basis of ecological datasets

Gábor Illés & Endre Schiberna

Correspondence

Abstract

Within the framework of the Károly Kaán national afforestation program, we examined the change in afforestation potential in our country. During the tests, we used two climate change scenarios, based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission forecasts. We determined the approximate size of areas that could be afforested in the future in the case of low-quality arable land, grassland or pasture land, and good-quality but steep arable land. We also examined how this opportunity changes over time. Areas that can be afforested sustainably were considered to be those whose soil is forest soil and/or which have an additional water supply available for the stands, and whose estimated potential for timber production reaches at least the 4th yield class. The results showed that currently approx. 456,000 ha of land land may be suitable for afforestation may be among the low-quality arable land, but only 123,000 ha of this can be found on forest soils. Together with grassland and pasture areas, under similar conditions, this number can rise to 262,000 ha. However, as a result of climate change, depending on the climate change scenarios, the proportion of areas suitable for afforestation decreases by at least 10% every 30 years in the examined land use categories. In addition, the enforcement of nature conservation aspects results in a further area reduction.

Keywords: afforestation possibilities, climate change, afforestation programs, spatial analyses