Bulletin of Forestry Science / Volume 12 / Issue 2 / Pages 91-112
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Investigating the climate analogue area of domestic tree species in the light of climate change

Gábor Illés & Norbert Móricz


Correspondence: Illés Gábor

Postal address: 9600 Sárvár, Várkerület u. 30/A.

e-mail: illes.gabor[at]uni-sopron.hu


We performed the climate envelope analysis of nine stand forming tree species, which are native not only in wider Europe but in Hungary as well. We identified climate analogue areas in order to evaluate the impact of climate change on forests. Beside the European tree species distribution database we used the bioclimatic variables of – not only the historical climate records but – an ensemble of climate models, which are based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The investigated four periods were: the past period of 1961–1990, the present period of 2011–2040, the near future period of 2041–2070, and the far future period of 2071–2100. The spatial rearrangements of species’ climate envelopes were modelled by the method of random forests with the exclusion of extrapolated areas. The results showed that the models predicted reliably the historical distribution areas of species. The models predicted significant rearrangements in the spatial extents of the species’ climate envelopes for the future-, and even for the present period. Considering the Hungarian aspects we concluded that, according to the optimistic scenario, by the end of this century, the spatial extent of suitable areas for oak species may drop to one fifth of the value measured at the turn of the 2000s. The only exception is downy oak, whose suitable area can multiply at the expense of other oak species. Another species on the losing side is beech whose climatically suitable area can reduce to one tenth of its former value. Beside the above, black pine can gain more and more areas. According to the models, the extent of the areas for which it will probably not be possible to find climate analogue provenances in Europe increases by two to three times. The modeling results of the climate envelopes of tree species can provide guidelines for climate adaptation, i.e. the identification of threatened areas and the selection of source and destination areas for reproductive material.

Keywords: climate analogue areas, decision support, climatic vulnerability of trees, sources of propagation material

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    Cite this article as:

    Illés, G. & Móricz, N. (2022): Investigating the climate analogue area of domestic tree species in the light of climate change. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 12(2): 91-112. (in Hungarian) DOI: 10.17164/EK.2022.06

    Volume 12, Issue 2
    Pages: 91-112

    DOI: 10.17164/EK.2022.06

    First published:
    10 March 2023

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