A Thornthwaite-type water balance model for the analysis of the hydrological impact of climate change
András Herceg, Péter Kalicz, Balázs Kisfaludi & Zoltán Gribovszki
Correspondence: Herceg András
Postal address: H-9400 Sopron, Bajcsy-Zsilinszky u. 4.
The global temperature increase is expected to cause severe impacts on the water balance. The objective of this paper was to develop a new monthly step model based on a Thornthwaite-type monthly water balance estimation and calibrate the model parameters using remote sensing-based evapotranspiration dataset. The calibrated model was also used for projection based on the simulation results of 4 regional climate models applying the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The 3 periods of projection were: 2010-2040, 2040-2070, and 2070-2100 compared to the reference period (1980/2010). The benefit of our method is its robust structure; therefore it can be applied if temperature and precipitation time series are accessible. The key parameter is the water storage capacity of the soil (SOILMAX), which can be calibrated using the actual available evapotranspiration data as well. If the soil’s physical properties are available, the maximal rooting depth is also projectable. The model can be used at the catchment level or for areas without additional water amounts from below. We have determined parameters (REW; SWD) to evaluate the water stress during the 21st century. The model has been successfully calibrated for a mixed parcel and for a small forest covered catchment in Northwest Hungary.
Keywords: water balance, climate change, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, water stress
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Cite this article as:
Herceg, A., Kalicz, P., Kisfaludi, B. & Gribovszki, Z. (2018): A Thornthwaite-type water balance model for the analysis of the hydrological impact of climate change. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 8(1): 73-92. (in Hungarian) DOI: 10.17164/EK.2018.005
Volume 8, Issue 1
29 May 2018
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